Sunday, April 28, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Zero Hedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (ALB) and (BRK/A).
CNBC:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @TuckerCarlson
  • @GlennBeck
  • @ConceptualJames
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @kylenabecker
  • @TheRabbitHole84
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @wideawake_media
  • @VigilantNews
  • @CitizenFreePress  
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @ImMeme0
  • @PierreKory
  • @VigilantFox
  • @ColinRugg
  • @diedsuddenly
  • @stillgray
  • "We want to smash the Democratic Party. We want to smash the Republican party. We want to smash this whole goddam capitalist, imperialist empire." This is a communist revolution. (video)
  • @thestustustudio
  • @ANTIWEF
  • @guybenson
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.92%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.34 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.0 +.05%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.4 +.02%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, April 27, 2024

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,099.9 +2.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 38,239.7 +.7%
  • NASDAQ 15,927.9 +4.2%
  • Russell 2000 2,002.0 +2.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 9,858.5 +6.1%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 153.4 +5.3%
  • Wilshire 5000 50,711.2 +2.7%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,301.6 +3.7%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,704.2 +1.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 806.5 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.4 +1.3%
  • NYSE Technology 4,626.6 +4.9%
  • Transports 15,170.9 +.58%
  • Utilities 884.3 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 104.5 +2.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 41.2 +3.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 208.1 -.68%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.1 -.57%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 490,278 +.8%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.6 +9.1%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -230 +157
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -35.4 +2.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 290,462 -2.3%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,799,606 +2.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -13.1%
  • OEX Put/Call .70 -21.6%
  • ISE Sentiment 120.0 +17.0 point
  • NYSE Arms 1.11 +42.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.7 -1.8%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .80 +11.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -19.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .67 -26.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 18.0 -23.3%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.61 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.0 -4.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,412.7 -.55%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  59.5 -3.5
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.977 Trillion +.2%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$17.848 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 32.1 -16.2%
  • AAII % Bears 33.9 -.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +12.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 296.84 +.7%
  • Crude Oil 83.4/bbl. -2.9%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 276.3 +2.1%
  • Natural Gas 1.61 -9.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.9 euros/megawatt-hour -6.1%
  • Heating Oil 254.8 +.52% 
  • Newcastle Coal 135.8 (1,000/metric ton) -4.4%
  • Gold 2,338.5 -2.5%
  • Silver 27.2 -5.2%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 471.2 -1.7%
  • Copper 457.1 +1.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 386.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • CME Lumber  513.5 -.2%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,505.3 +1.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton -2.4%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +3.9% +100.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.9 +11.1%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 131.4 +29.1%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(228 of 500 reporting) +3.4% -6.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.88 +.43:  Growth Rate +13.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.84% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +42.4% -35.8 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 315.36 +1.38: Growth Rate +31.3% +.6 percentage point, P/E 31.2 +.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.1 -18.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 28.7 -4.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.3 +9.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 2.9%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 97.1%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 5/1
  • US Dollar Index 105.96 -.09%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,713.68 +.19%
  • Bitcoin/USD 64,081.9 -1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.90 +2.4%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -33.25 +2.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.67% +6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.367 Trillion -.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.844 Billion +17.0%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $125.492 Billion -.17%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.3 +2.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 187.7 +1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 -8.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.2 -8.2%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.7 +.15%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 152.0 -6.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 134.77 -4.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.90 -3.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.39 -.55%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 90.82 +.11%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.7% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% +3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.45% -8.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.75 basis points +1.25 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.5 +2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.75 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.8 -8.9%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 123.0 -5.4
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 286.0 +12.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.05 -7.7%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.1 -4.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 174.91 -4.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 770.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .57 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -.3% +140.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,309.5B -.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 213,250 -.58%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.9 +4.1%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.56% +16.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 196,700 -2.7%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.10% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -7.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $112.9M -39.5%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.66/gallon -.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,743.4 -9.2%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,718.5/40 ft Box -2.7%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,705.5 -.5%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 52.2 -9.1%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 257,599 -.19%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,675,734 +20.4%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +3.9%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Value +1.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Semis +10.0%
  • Disk Drives +7.1%
  • Social Media +6.9%
  • Construction +5.5%
  • Computer Hardware +5.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Telecom -1.0%
  • Insurance -1.9%
  • Steel -3.3%
  • Airlines -4.3%
  • Computer Services -5.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (52)
  • CGEM, SNAP, TPC, EXPO, SLCA, RMD, ZIM, SKX, PTCT, ANAB, TBBB, CAVA, DJT, APPF, GOOGL, KTOS, SG, RILY, AN, BEKE, BALL, MHK, FUTU, IRDM, SAH, NVDA, APP, DEC, BILI, JD, MNSO, TROW, TER, CSL, SCCO, LHX, FMX, PEGA, CDP, DDOG, ENPH, VRT, ATHM, BIIB, ZTS, MUX, CMRE, AMRK, BBVA and GME
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)
  • HCA, TFII, CZR, VRSN, ABBV, CUBI, ODFL, ALSN, MBLY, CINF, TS, XPO, CABA, AON, DXCM, TEAM, INTC, ROKU, TNET, BYD and SAIA
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change